Saturday, May 29, 2004 |
13:30 - We will strike the Cupertino Satan!
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Okay—so it turns out that the Denver Post article I quoted on Thursday, describing Microsoft as being on the verge of releasing a $50 iPod-killer device, was pretty much bogus. As Jay Random says, who's been keeping an eye firmly fixed to the story, Microsoft's Yusuf Mehdi said nothing of the sort.
Here's what Mr. Mehdi actually said:
Number one, our strategy is certainly to offer a multitude of devices. . . . I personally have spent time with a bunch of hardware manufacturers who will launch hardware products when we ship our service that will look and feel as good as the iPod product. And they will undoubtedly be a little bit less expensive. Head-to-head against Apple, we'll have a device that will be available to the consumer. We won't produce it, but it will be available to the consumer. . . . And then we'll have a bunch of other devices in between. Little ones that cost $50 that you go running with. So, the proposition is that you can buy a number of different devices with the MSN Music service as opposed to just a single device from Apple.
In other words, Microsoft isn't introducing its own music player at all. They certainly aren't preparing to sell an iPod knockoff for fifty bucks. All they're doing is flogging Janus, their new distribution system for crappy WMA files, to the usual gang of hardware manufacturers. What's so great about Janus? Well, you see, it operates on a subscription model, which (supposedly) is so much more convenient than actually buying music, and is what the customer really wants. What we all desperately desire, you see, is to fork over big bucks for an MP3 player that will stop working when the subscription runs out. Yes, you heard that right. When you stop paying for your Janus box, every protected WMA file in it will become unplayable.
You will observe how wildly successful subscription-based music stores have been so far: Napster 2.0, for instance. Roxio seems to be in some danger of going broke with that model. (Cue old joke: They lose money on every song they sell, but make it up in volume!) And this is the Number 2 player in the U.S. market, right behind Apple. (Well, a few laps behind, but let's be charitable.)
Observe how drastically the story changes from the original transcript to the report in the 'mainstream', 'unbiased' press. The Denver Post is so eager to prove that Apple Is Doomed™ that its reporter misrepresents every single pertinent fact about the story, except one: Mehdi really did use the three words 'look and feel'. The result would have put the old Soviet Encyclopaedia to shame.
Now apply that same standard of journalistic integrity to something important, like, say, wars in Iraq, general elections, or Leaders of the Free World. How are you feeling about the media now? Still trusting? Still filled with faith and confidence?
I'm reminded of words of wisdom from that creaky old professor in Real Genius: "Always .... er... never... forget to check your references."
Specifically, in this case, an article at The Mac Observer, which goes into exhaustive detail with analysis and quotes from interviewees.
Mehdi says:
As I look around, I see very few offerings. Outside of the Apple (iTunes Music Store) offering, I think it's been okay that we've taken some time (to launch our service), because I'm not sure any of the other ones out there have done anything of note. We're taking our time. We're going to make a very simple, very easy to use service that will be, among other things, the best way to discover music online. In the discovery part of this, I think that's the part that is sort of untapped and a big opportunity. That will be coming out later this year. We think it's going to be amazing for our business, not just because of what we do for consumers on it, but because of transactions and the relationship with customers on billing and what that does to inform our online ad business. What that will do to really perfect our search service. We want people to be able to search for an artist and one-click buy. (That will be) very powerful...
But...
"I don't know how Microsoft can do online music searches any better than what Apple is doing today," Mr. Wilcox said. "It's so easy to find music on iTunes. Apple has created so many different avenues from links from the artist, to the song, to the album, in your library to the online store, to the billboard charts, to the iMixes, to the artist play lists. There are so many ways to find music in the iTunes Music Store.
"Apple has the simple solution. Microsoft is playing catchup. Step back from the market hype for a second. They're making it sound so good that they are going to make it easier and make the searches and synchronization easier. But where are they starting from? They are starting way back behind Apple. At best, they're playing catchup...I find his comments that if they can't have the biggest selection of online music they'll have the second best, very interesting. He's admitting that Apple is doing better."
So says Joe Wilcox, senior analyst at Jupiter Research. I gotta wonder the same thing. I mean, has Mehdi seen iTunes? "Search for an artist and one-click buy." Yes, in fact that is quite powerful. Has been for over a year now.
I see Real is now firing up their own store (giveaways with Heineken beer—yeah, that's the angle that Apple missed with its misguided Pepsi promotion!), and I have to imagine it's going to be just about as successful as Napster 2, the Coca-Cola music store, the Butterfinger one, and the not-lamented BuyMusic.com. Microsoft's the only company that can sustain a business model around a digital music store, because it's a loss-leader—Apple sells iPods, Microsoft sells Windows. But Microsoft seems to be insisting on this godawful Janus scheme, which I have to think is so irritating (and backwards-looking, ironically enough, to the era of subscription music services that never took off and that iTunes broke the industry away from) that nobody will put up with it.
And Mehdi's comments, instead of heralding a real and innovative threat, now seem more like Microsoft claiming to have identified "29 sensitive device price points! We have been monitoring these weaknesses, and will soon strike at Apple with a power like unto the very fist of God! You believe us now!"
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